The return of the Iran war premium has taken a toll on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has dropped 2.1% to $75,633, with a weekly decline of 3%, as Brent crude oil prices jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, marking the highest level in four years. This surge is attributed to an Axios report stating that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran, which has led to a war premium being factored into asset prices.
The global benchmark for oil has been on a nine-day winning streak, with prices increasing over 100% year-to-date. As a result, other cryptocurrencies such as ether, XRP, and Solana have also experienced declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244, XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37, and Solana losing 2.6% to $82.62.
The only notable exception is dogecoin, which saw a 3.8% increase to $0.10. Risk assets across the board are experiencing losses, with the Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and European equities poised for a 1% decline at the open.
The rise in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decrease in demand for fixed income, resulting in the dollar gaining and bonds sliding. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset holding a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 despite oil prices increasing from $98 to $126.
However, each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show, with bitcoin now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind, which is contingent upon a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel.