The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will hurt bitcoin. This is because higher yields make bonds a more attractive investment, leading to capital rotation out of risk assets like bitcoin. With the US government offering a nearly risk-free 5% return on its bonds, investors may be less inclined to put their money into bitcoin, which does not generate any yield.
As a result, bitcoin's price has fallen, trading at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours. The rise in bond yields is also being driven by internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three voting officials pushing back against easing language in the central bank's statement. This has led to expectations of higher interest rates for longer, which is contributing to the increase in bond yields. Additionally, the recent surge in oil prices is lifting inflation expectations, further supporting the rise in yields.
According to crypto analysts, the current macro environment, characterized by rising yields and a stronger dollar, is likely to continue putting pressure on bitcoin and other risk assets.