A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to have a significant impact on the market, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting crypto markets. Crypto assets, including bitcoin, have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and the historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern. The lesson from Coinbase's listing is that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is often the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
The SpaceX listing has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.