Despite bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, reaching $77,953.91, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time peak. Analyst James Check views such a move as unlikely, stating it would be statistically extraordinary, though not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key metrics like the 200-week moving average and realized price to rank bitcoin's price historically.
A price of $40,000 would place bitcoin in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, an outcome Check describes as 'below any meaningful deviation' and equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. Currently, bitcoin's price sits around the 31.5th percentile, a historically weak but normal correction range. Check notes that while no market event has a zero probability, a decline to $40,000 would be 'near-unprecedented'.