According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to launch soon.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion.
In contrast to Polymarket and Kalshi, Hyperliquid faces no geographical constraints and has a user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established. The contrast is most notable with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, limiting users' access to the platform's upside.