This excerpt is from the CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' To stay updated, sign up here if you haven't already. Bitcoin surged to $77,400, rebounding alongside other risk assets after major US tech companies' earnings reports helped stabilize the market. The upswing followed Apple's earnings report, which, along with those from Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, showcased double-digit revenue growth, thereby enhancing industry sentiment.

Although these earnings reports have lifted risk assets, including equities and crypto, the current bounce is attributed more to relief buying than a conviction that a new rally has begun. According to crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, the market is currently facing 'short-term pressure with mixed structural factors,' including diminished hopes for rate cuts, ETF outflows, and increased geopolitical risk. Despite oil prices surging and over $400 million in outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs, crypto prices have held steady.

The ongoing conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to higher crude prices, fueling inflation and making central banks less inclined to cut interest rates, which could negatively impact crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more appealing. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with four dissenting voices, the most since 1992.

This decision, coupled with the lack of clear signals for rate cuts, led to a repricing of policy expectations, as noted by Mercado Bitcoin. The company's head of research, Rony Szuster, stated, 'In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and highly sensitive to economic data.

In the medium term, the structure will depend on the stabilization of institutional flows and the trajectory of global monetary policy.' With Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ending on May 15 and Kevin Warsh expected to chair the June FOMC meeting, which may introduce volatility given Warsh's preference for tightening monetary policy, the key test for bitcoin remains at $80,000. A successful break above this level could attract new buyers, while a failed attempt may trigger selling if leveraged long positions are unwound. For further analysis of today's altcoin and derivatives activity, refer to Crypto Markets Today, and for a comprehensive list of this week's events, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.