A historic stock market debut is impending, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to draw significant interest and potentially divert liquidity away from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This massive capital raise, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, may be affected by this significant capital pull.
Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a rotation out of equities could impact crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's 2021 listing, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raises concerns that institutional milestones may signal tops rather than starting lines.
SpaceX's 30% retail allocation and its material bitcoin position, worth approximately $600 million, add to the complexity of the situation. The crypto market's response to the SpaceX IPO will be a key indicator of its resilience and ability to decouple from broader risk-on flows.