According to Michael Terpin, a renowned early bitcoin investor and author, the cryptocurrency has not yet hit rock bottom and is unlikely to reach a new all-time high this year. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather', believes that bitcoin needs to plummet to approximately $57,000 by October before it can begin its ascent.
This prediction contradicts the views of some market analysts who think the bear market has ended and a bull run has begun. Terpin's forecast is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, which he believes is typical at this stage, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. He also points out that the price of bitcoin was strongly rejected at the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours, which he sees as a factor in the current cycle.
While some analysts, such as Jason Fernandes, agree that the bottom has not yet been seen, they disagree with Terpin's timeline. Fernandes believes that the market may not have fully capitulated yet and that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which indicates a price of around $57,000. He predicts this will happen in October, similar to the timeline of last year's events.
Other analysts, such as Mati Greenspan, disagree with Terpin's bearish outlook, saying that his take seems overly bearish and that an all-time high is still possible this year. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that one more leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.