As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers highlighted the challenges of clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil chokepoint, which could take at least six months and will only commence after the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved. According to the Washington Post, this briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, posing a risk of persistent inflation.

This, in turn, could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions. Rising costs of essentials such as fuel and food could further deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets.

These risks are already manifesting in markets, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 from $79 late last week, and government bond yields increasing across major economies. The U.S. 10-year yield has risen by eight basis points to 4.32% this week, while its U.K.

counterpart has increased by 18 basis points to 4.96%. Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, noted that 'oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks.' Despite these challenges, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with funds experiencing their fastest inflows in a month.

However, some analysts are urging caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, warned that 'the recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market.

Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace). The same happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K. There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract.' The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, while speculation in non-serious tokens is reaching a fever pitch, with overcrowding in bullish bets. The ratio between bitcoin's price and gold has been steadily rising, topping the 100-day average, with the 50-day average potentially moving above the 100-day average, confirming a bullish crossover.