A historic stock market debut is looming, with SpaceX's initial public offering anticipated in June, potentially drawing interest away from crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Other notable companies, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, are also planning to go public, which could collectively raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the liquidity of crypto and other assets, as they share the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between crypto and traditional stocks has been tightening, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it may also affect the demand for higher-beta assets like crypto. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing. SpaceX's IPO, with its significant retail allocation and material bitcoin position, may have a direct impact on crypto flows.
The 30% retail allocation, approximately $22 billion, may divert funds away from crypto, while SpaceX's 8,285 BTC holding, worth around $600 million, makes it the first public company with a disclosed material bitcoin position under new accounting rules. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the IPO roadshow or if it will begin to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.