According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to give it a competitive edge. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The fact that users can own the HYPE token and directly profit from their usage of HIP-4 gives it a significant advantage. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
Hyperliquid's user base is skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established, and it faces no geographical constraints, unlike Polymarket, which is rebuilding its US business and grappling with regulatory issues in Asia. The contrast between Hyperliquid and Kalshi is particularly notable, as Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.