The resurgence of the Iran war premium has had a significant impact on cryptocurrency markets. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen 2.1% to $75,633, with a weekly decline of 3%, as Brent crude oil prices jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - the highest level in four years - following an Axios report that President Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
This development has led to the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, marking the first time the US has used such weapons in combat. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut down since late February, disrupting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and other oil products. The war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than supply and demand, has been a significant factor in Brent's 100% year-to-date increase.
The global benchmark has now experienced a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022. Other cryptocurrencies, including ether, XRP, and Solana, have also declined, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37.
In contrast, dogecoin has seen a 3.8% increase in value over the past 24 hours and a 10.1% increase over the past week. Risk assets have also experienced losses, with Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decrease in demand for fixed income, resulting in higher Treasury 10-year yields and a stronger dollar. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset having held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 in April despite rising oil prices and escalating conflict.
However, each new escalation headline has led to sharper drawdowns, and the cumulative damage is beginning to show, with bitcoin now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 will require the war premium to unwind.
"Bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a corresponding drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel," he stated. Lillo also suggested that the Trump administration may lift the naval blockade of Iran in the coming days, framing it as a response to "positive steps by Iran" to engineer a relief rally. This could potentially trigger an influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.