A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO potentially drawing liquidity away from crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with combined funding exceeding $240 billion from June to year-end.
This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities, including crypto, as institutional investors rebalance their portfolios. The timing of these IPOs may coincide with a decline in crypto prices, as seen in the past when institutional milestones marked market tops rather than bottoms. With crypto correlated to tech and AI equities, the liquidity pool is shared, and a significant allocation to SpaceX's IPO could divert funds away from bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO is notable, as it could attract funds that would otherwise be invested in crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The impact of these IPOs on crypto will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June, to see if crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows.