The consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's current price of $78,453.96 will surge above $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning its year-to-date performance from negative to positive. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this trajectory. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and discovered a significant bias towards bitcoin's price exceeding $90,000 over the past week. Mentions of a price range between $50,000 and $59,000 are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd is anticipating the slow recovery from February's low of around $60,000 to continue into May, fueled by the return of flows into exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent geopolitical and economic challenges. According to Santiment, this widespread bullish sentiment is actually a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social media predictions can often indicate a potential bearish performance.
This phenomenon is reminiscent of the wisdom of American poet Charles Bukowski, who advised, 'Wherever the crowd goes, run in the other direction. They're always wrong.' Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it unclear whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.