Research suggests that a small number of traders are driving the market, but an even smaller group is reaping most of the benefits. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that on Polymarket, a tiny fraction of wallets - less than 1% - is capturing roughly half of all profits in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of gains, with around $8 million of the $16 million in profits going to each of these small groups. This data reinforces previous academic findings that a small minority of traders drives most price discovery, with about 3% of Polymarket traders responsible for this.
The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have significant advantages, including more capital, better infrastructure, and faster access to information. The study also identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus Labs argues that this trading strategy has no equivalent in traditional finance and may be driven by incentive farming rather than pure manipulation, potentially linked to Polymarket's upcoming POLY airdrop.
While the data is verifiable, the report's framing should be considered in the context of Solidus Labs' sales pitch for its surveillance platform.