The upcoming SpaceX IPO, expected to be one of the largest in history, is set to take place in June, and its impact on crypto markets is being closely watched. With a targeted $75 billion capital raise, the offering will be more than 2.5 times larger than the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. This massive influx of capital, combined with the planned IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The concern is that this capital pull may drain liquidity from crypto markets, which are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
Historically, when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it can lead to a decrease in higher-beta assets, including crypto. The lesson from Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is that institutional milestones can frequently mark tops rather than starting lines. With SpaceX's IPO, the 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules, the impact on crypto flows will be closely monitored. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.