The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, sparking concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will hinder bitcoin's performance. As bond yields become more attractive, investors may shift their capital away from riskier assets like bitcoin, which could lead to a decline in its value.
This trend is further exacerbated by the strengthening US dollar and rising long-term inflation expectations, driven in part by the recent oil price rally. According to experts, the dynamic is straightforward: as long as yields remain high and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stays tight, capital will favor safer alternatives, putting pressure on assets like crypto.
The rise in bond yields is not limited to the US, with yields also increasing in the UK and other parts of the world. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, combined with internal dissent from some officials, has led to expectations of higher interest rates for a longer period, contributing to the surge in bond yields. As a result, bitcoin is already feeling the effects, trading down 2% over 24 hours, and the macro backdrop is expected to remain a headwind for the cryptocurrency.