The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuelan raid, initially perceived as an isolated incident, may be just the tip of the iceberg. A comprehensive analysis conducted by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research organization, has examined over 435,000 settled Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to mid-March 2026.
The study reveals that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have succeeded at rates that cannot be easily attributed to skill or luck, with some cases showing success rates exceeding 50%. In contrast, the typical success rate for such 'longshot' bets across political markets is around 14%. The authors of the report suggest that markets tied to specific government policies, including military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, such as insider trading or specialized knowledge, due to the difficulty in forecasting outcomes using public information alone. This creates an environment where a small group of informed traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by possessing more knowledge.
Polymarket has emphasized its market surveillance efforts and cooperation with the Department of Justice regarding the Venezuela case, emphasizing that trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform. The report's findings contribute to a growing body of research indicating that a small percentage of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket, with roughly 3% of traders driving prices, and fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, highlighting that in the hours leading up to the strike, 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed across contracts that ultimately resolved in favor of the strike, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits.
The pattern of well-timed, large bets on the outcome, despite the operation being designed to be unreadable from the outside, suggests that some participants may have operated with information advantages that others did not have. The report recommends several measures, including identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity. Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all, given the potential for insider trading and the concentration of profits among a small group of traders.