A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, which may divert investor attention away from the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion on the first day. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This amount exceeds the total raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. The massive capital influx from these IPOs may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially causing a bearish trend in the stock market. Alex Good, founder of Post Fiat, believes that after the SpaceX IPO, the market may become bearish, similar to the 'Solana $300 moment.' Crypto assets, including bitcoin, are likely to be affected by this shift in market sentiment, as they are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The lesson learned from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting point, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. Two features of the SpaceX listing are directly connected to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The performance of crypto assets during the roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal, indicating whether they can hold up against the impending IPO or will begin to decline as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.