The current bitcoin price of $78,650.40 has not yet reached its lowest point, and it is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a well-known early bitcoin investor and author of 'Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich'. To initiate a bull market, Terpin believes the price must first break above $100,000, and he anticipates the bottom will occur at $57,000 by October.
Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies, CoinAgenda, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group. His outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the February low marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run.
Most analysts cited renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as part of their outlook. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he believes is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle. While Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached, he disagrees with the timeline, suggesting the market may not have fully capitulated yet.
Fernandes noted that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet. Terpin insisted that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October. Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and risk assets adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment. The author and entrepreneur also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst.
Greenspan believes that Terpin's take seems overly bearish and that there is still room for growth this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. Fernandes also noted that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.