The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin remains stagnant, while other assets experience significant fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week.
This tight range persisted even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described its current situation as a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. However, Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit positive growth. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises and investors shift their capital to the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability suggests a shift in market structure.
'The supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar stated in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits.' From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours.
Brent crude oil prices have been volatile, oscillating between gains and losses, but remain elevated near $111 due to the blockade reports, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin trades on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling.
If the read is wrong, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break Bitget flagged could play out as expected.