According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets focuses on capturing the upside, not just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to introduce a new paradigm. Hayes argues that the key differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid's exchange token, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market, Hayes claims.
The HYPE token has a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having an Asia-skewed user base with no equivalent constraints.
In contrast, Kalshi's model, built around compliance and licensing, likely precludes the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to, making it a direct test of his thesis.