The specter of war with Iran has returned, and the crypto market is feeling the effects. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen 2.1% to $75,633, with a weekly decline of 3%, as Brent crude oil prices jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - a four-year high - following an Axios report that President Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran. The report also stated that US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces. This development has led to the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed since late February, severely impacting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and other oil products.
As a result, a 'war premium' has been factored into the price of Brent crude, driving its value up over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark has now seen nine consecutive days of gains, the longest streak since May 2022. Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244, XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37, and Solana losing 2.6% to $82.62.
The only notable exception is dogecoin, which has risen 3.8% to $0.10. Risk assets are broadly retreating, with Nasdaq 100 futures giving up earlier gains and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The US dollar has gained, while bonds have slid due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed stance.
The 10-year Treasury yield remains near its highest level since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the conflict is being tested, having maintained a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April despite the oil price surge and escalating conflict.
However, each new escalation headline has resulted in a sharper decline, and the cumulative damage is starting to show. Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, a break above $80,000 would require the war premium to dissipate. 'Bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,' he noted.
'One is impossible without the other, and the US administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a significant obstacle.' Lillo also suggested a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days, framing it as a response to 'positive steps' by Iran, which could trigger a relief rally. 'A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could lead to an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.'