The current bitcoin price of $78,278.61 has not yet reached its lowest point, and it's unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a well-known early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, believes that the price needs to break above $100,000 with no nearby support levels to confirm a bull market.
He predicts the bottom will occur at $57,000 by October. This viewpoint differs from the consensus among analysts who think the February low of around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Terpin's bearish outlook is based on the historical patterns of bitcoin's cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation. While some analysts, like Jason Fernandes, agree that the bottom has not been reached, they disagree on the timing and believe the market may not have fully capitulated yet.
Fernandes notes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet. The fundamentals, according to Terpin, point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000.
He also predicts that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disputed by other analysts like Mati Greenspan, who believes the take is overly bearish and that an all-time high is plausible given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest.