According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading, is set to launch with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The fact that users can own the $HYPE token and directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4 gives Hyperliquid a significant edge.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, $POLY, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established. The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially offering a unique value proposition.