The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in trading volume, uncovering unusually high win rates for low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes. These success rates, which have reached as high as 50% in some cases, are difficult to explain by skill or luck alone.
The report suggests that markets related to government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading. This creates an environment in which a small group of informed traders can consistently outperform others. The findings add to a growing body of research indicating that a small percentage of traders account for most price discovery and profits on Polymarket. The report examines the June 2025 U.S.
strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in profits of around $1.8 million for eight wallets. The pattern of well-timed bets on military and defense outcomes raises concerns about the potential for insider trading and highlights the need for increased transparency and regulation. The ACDC report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, and restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups.
The report also calls for a broader debate about the ethics of allowing the public to bet on military and defense outcomes.