This excerpt is from the CoinDesk 'Daybook' newsletter. Subscribe now if you haven't already. Bitcoin rose to $77,400, rebounding alongside other risk assets following the release of earnings reports from major US tech companies, which helped stabilize the market. The increase came after Apple, along with peers such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reported double-digit revenue growth, enhancing industry sentiment.

Although these earnings reports led to a rise in risk assets, fueled by renewed confidence in AI growth, the current bounce is attributed more to relief buying than a conviction that a new rally has begun. According to a note from Mercado Bitcoin, a crypto exchange, the market is experiencing 'short-term pressure due to mixed structural factors,' including diminished hopes for rate cuts, ETF outflows, and heightened geopolitical risks. Despite oil prices surging and over $400 million in outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs as April concluded, crypto prices have held steady.

Oil remains a crucial factor, as higher crude prices resulting from the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could fuel inflation, making central banks less inclined to cut interest rates, which could negatively impact crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more appealing. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with four dissenting voices, the most since 1992.

Mercado Bitcoin noted that the decision and lack of clear signals for rate cuts led markets to reevaluate policy expectations. 'In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,' said Rony Szuster, the company's head of research.

'In the medium term, the structure will depend on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.' With Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ending on May 15 and Kevin Warsh expected to chair the June FOMC meeting, which could induce volatility given Warsh's preference for tightening monetary policy, the key test for bitcoin remains at $80,000. A break above this level could attract new buyers, while a failed attempt may trigger selling if leveraged long positions are unwound. For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today, and for a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead.