A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto assets. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. This offering is expected to be more than 2.5 times larger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history.
Alongside OpenAI's planned Q4 listing at a valuation near $1 trillion and Anthropic's potential $60 billion debut, these companies are set to raise over $240 billion from June through the end of the year. This capital pull is larger than every venture-backed US IPO since 2000 combined, and crypto assets are likely to be impacted as they share the same liquidity pool. The rotation of capital into these IPOs may lead to a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of the capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, such as crypto, may be redirected. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is three times the typical retail share on a deal of this size, and this capital will not be available to bid on cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of this IPO on crypto assets will be visible in the coming weeks, as the roadshow window in May and June approaches.