The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin remains stagnant while other assets experience fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This tight trading range persists even as Brent crude oil surpassed $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Trump's statement on Truth Social, Iran is in a 'State of Collapse.' However, Tehran has indicated that it may consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Over the week, Ether declined by 2.6% to $2,310, while XRP fell by 3.8% to $1.39. Solana and BNB also experienced losses, dropping by 3.2% to $84.57 and 2.3% to $625, respectively. In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit growth over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that typically occurs when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a statement that Bitcoin's relative stability is indicative of a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar said in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added.
From a technical perspective, the levels are more defined. Analysts at Bitget identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downside if breached. A reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continued to fluctuate but remained elevated near $111, fueled by the blockade reports, thereby putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders may be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin trades on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may unfold as predicted.