A significant majority of the retail crowd is forecasting that the price of bitcoin will surpass $90,000 in the near future, thereby turning the year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, the question remains as to whether the market will follow this trend. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that over the past week, the majority of posts have been bullish, with many predicting the price of bitcoin to rise above $90,000. The mention of lower price ranges, such as $50,000-$59,000, is being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd's expectations are likely driven by the recent recovery from the February low of around $60,000, as well as the resilience of bitcoin in the face of various global events. According to Santiment, this widespread bullishness is a reason to be cautious, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often be a contrarian indicator for a potential bearish performance.
This concept is echoed by traditional market contrarian traders, who use sentiment gauges such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday.
It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.