The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000.
The premium peaked around April 22 and has since declined. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or reduced participation.
On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss surging to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss occurs when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. The recent spike near $6 billion at a price of $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an opportunity to exit rather than reenter. The combination of these datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply is cleared. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating a potential thinning of the seller cohort.