A historic stock market debut is imminent, and it may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for their public market debuts, which could raise over $60 billion and $1 trillion, respectively.
The combined capital raise of these three companies is estimated to exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially draining liquidity from the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and a decrease in speculative capital in equities could lead to a decrease in crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The lesson learned from this event is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.