The price of bitcoin, currently at $78,008.22, has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of 'Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich'. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price of bitcoin must break back above $100,000, which he does not foresee happening anytime soon.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the market is still in a downturn. His prediction of the bottom being at $57,000 in October contrasts with the views of other analysts who think the February low of around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market. Terpin's bearish outlook is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, where he expects lower highs to be rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet.
Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet. Terpin, however, insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when bitcoin first dipped below $100,000.
Another analyst, Mati Greenspan, disagrees with Terpin's bearish view, saying that his take seems overly pessimistic and that an all-time high this year is plausible given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that one more leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.