Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about who captures the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from their platform usage, unlike users of Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of a potential Polymarket token. Geographical constraints also play a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Kalshi's model being built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives.
This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the platform's upside. The structural split between the three platforms is clear: Hyperliquid ties usage to a token, Polymarket is moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely prevents it altogether.