This excerpt is from the CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Subscribe here if you haven't already. Bitcoin rose to $77,400, rebounding alongside other risk assets following the release of earnings reports from major US tech companies, which helped stabilize the markets. The gains followed Apple's earnings report, which, along with those of its peers including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, showed double-digit revenue growth. These reports boosted risk assets as renewed confidence in AI growth drew investors back into equities and crypto.

However, the current bounce is attributed more to relief buying than a conviction that a new rally has begun. According to a note from crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, the market faces 'short-term pressure with mixed structural factors,' including diminished hopes for rate cuts, ETF outflows, and increased geopolitical risk. Despite oil price surges and over $400 million in outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs, crypto prices held steady as April ended. The ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions could lead to higher crude prices, fueling inflation and making central banks less inclined to cut interest rates.

This scenario could negatively impact crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more appealing. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with four dissenting voices, the most since 1992.

Mercado Bitcoin noted that the decision and lack of clear rate-cut signals led to a repricing of policy expectations. 'In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,' said Rony Szuster, the company's head of research. 'In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.' With Jerome Powell's chairmanship at the Fed ending on May 15 and Kevin Warsh expected to chair the June FOMC meeting, volatility is anticipated due to Warsh's preference for tightening monetary policy. The crucial test for bitcoin remains at the $80,000 level; a break could attract new buyers, while a failed attempt may trigger selling if leveraged long positions are unwound.

For analysis of today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today, and for a comprehensive list of this week's events, see CoinDesk's Crypto Week Ahead. Currently trending is the weekly bitcoin price testing rejection at the $80,000 resistance zone, with the RSI showing early signs of a bullish divergence, though this remains unconfirmed on a weekly close.

Failure to break above this level keeps the price range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average of about $68,000 and the $80,000 level.