A historic stock-market debut is imminent, and crypto finds itself in the same liquidity pool. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This could lead to the largest stock-market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record.
Alongside OpenAI's and Anthropic's planned listings, these IPOs could pull in over $240 billion from June through year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The massive capital pull may lead to a bearish equities market, affecting crypto as it shares the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Bitcoin, ether, and other majors have shown tightening correlation to Nasdaq and the S&P 500, suggesting that when speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, crypto may also be affected.
Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in 2021, indicate that institutional milestones can mark tops rather than starting lines. With SpaceX's 30% retail allocation and its material bitcoin position, the company's IPO could have a significant impact on crypto flows.
The testable signal will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.