Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market it entered in October, given that it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high.
Bitcoin analyst James Check views such a move as unlikely, stating that while not impossible, it would be statistically remarkable. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics such as the 200-week moving average and volume-weighted average price measures.
When modeled at $40,000, Bitcoin's price falls into the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, in contrast to its current price sitting around the 31.5th percentile, which is historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check acknowledges that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a near-unprecedented outcome.