The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in bitcoin and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, which he does not foresee happening anytime soon.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the cryptocurrency is still in a downward trend. His prediction is that the price will hit a low of $57,000 by October, a view that contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the bear market ended in February with a low of around $60,000.
Terpin's bearish outlook is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, which he believes is typical at this stage, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated.
Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which he does not think has occurred yet. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000.
He predicts this will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when bitcoin first dipped below $100,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The 'Crypto Godfather' also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view that is disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks that with the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high is plausible. Fernandes agrees that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.