The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing significant movements. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, with a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following reports that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has claimed to be in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran has indicated a willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The only exception is Dogecoin, which has risen 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, leaving it much thinner on the sell-side. He believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of wider market volatility.
With the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for the exits. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downside.
A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have remained elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. However, if the read is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.