The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, coinciding with bitcoin's rise from $66,000 to a local high of $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has since declined.
As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating in the market. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This surge in realized losses implies that sellers are selling coins below their original purchase price. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., these sellers likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026 and are now using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than reentering the market. The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their activity on Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling.
Bitcoin was recently trading around $76,000. Going forward, traders will be watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply is absorbed.
The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort is dwindling.