According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's venture into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. The recently proposed Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from platform activity, a feature that sets it apart from Polymarket and Kalshi.
With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant player in the prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of approximately $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data, whereas Polymarket's potential token, $POLY, has a implied valuation of around $14 billion. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having an advantage with its user base skewed towards the region. In contrast, Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives, making it an interesting test of Hayes' thesis.
The key difference between the three platforms lies in their structural approach, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it.