The resurgence of the Iran war premium has adversely affected the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen by 2.1% to $75,633, representing a 3% decline over the week, as Brent crude oil jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, its highest intraday level in four years, following an Axios report that President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report also noted that U.S. Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began in late February, resulting in a significant reduction in the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and oil products.
This development has led to a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than supply-demand fundamentals. Brent crude oil has been carrying a substantial war premium all year, with prices increasing by over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark is currently on a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and has risen by over 100% year-to-date.
Ether has dropped 3.4% to $2,244 and is down 4.4% over the week. XRP has fallen 2.1% to $1.37, representing a 3.7% decline over seven days. Solana has lost 2.6% to $82.62, while BNB has shed 1.9% to $615. The only notable gainer in the top 10, excluding stablecoins, is dogecoin, which has risen 3.8% on the day and 10.1% over the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are experiencing a broad decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures erasing an earlier 1.1% rally fueled by strong Alphabet and Amazon earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific share index has fallen 1.4%, and European equities are poised to drop 1% at the open. The dollar has gained, while bonds have slid, as the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have reduced demand for fixed income. Treasury 10-year yields have held near their highest level since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin's resilience during the early stages of the war is being tested, as the asset has maintained a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April, despite oil prices rising from $98 to $126 and the conflict entering its third month. Each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is beginning to show. Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, noted in a report that any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind. 'Bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, consequently, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,' he stated. 'One is impossible without the other, and the USA administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a significant obstacle.' Lillo flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran' to engineer a relief rally.
'A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.'