Bitcoin's apparent momentum towards breaking the $80,000 barrier has been hindered by renewed macro uncertainty. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to US lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil chokepoint, could take a minimum of six months and will only commence after the US-Iran conflict is resolved. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, as reported by the Washington Post. This could lead to persistent inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates and creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions.

Rising costs of essentials such as fuel and food may also reduce investors' willingness to invest in speculative assets. These risks are already reflected in the market, with WTI crude increasing to around $95 from $79 and government bond yields rising across major economies.

The US 10-year yield has increased by eight basis points to 4.32% this week, while its UK counterpart has risen by 18 basis points to 4.96%. According to Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, 'Oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks.' Despite this, US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to show sustained demand, with the fastest inflows in a month based on the seven-day moving average of net flows tracked by Glassnode.

However, some analysts are urging caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that 'The recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace). The same happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K.

There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract.' The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, while speculation in non-serious tokens is reaching a fever pitch, with overcrowding in bullish bets. For more analysis, see Crypto Markets Today and CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.'