A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto assets. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, which could collectively pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This massive capital influx could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it may divert liquidity away from bitcoin and other digital assets. The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a downturn. Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase listing in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a decline rather than a rally.
The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto assets, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, worth approximately $600 million. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal for whether crypto can hold up against the impending IPO or if it will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.