Bitcoin has maintained its position above $77,000, following a notable surge to its highest level since early February. This upward trend puts the cryptocurrency on track for a 13.6% increase in April, marking its best monthly performance in a year, as per CoinGlass data. The recovery comes after a challenging period, during which crypto markets experienced their longest losing streak since 2018, with consecutive monthly declines from October to February. The improvement in the broader macroeconomic landscape, including a strong recovery in U.S.
equities with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs, has contributed to this turnaround. Additionally, the supply of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, has increased to nearly $150 billion, with a $5 billion growth over the past two weeks, providing a crypto-specific driver for the move. This surge in stablecoin supply acts as a liquidity indicator in crypto markets, signaling capital inflow and potentially healthy asset prices.
However, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict persist, keeping oil prices elevated. For now, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns, with strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets offsetting worries about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks, according to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute.
De Maere notes that markets seem to have become desensitized to intricate conflict headlines, indicating a level of fatigue and potential complacency. The upcoming April Fed meeting will be a crucial test for the current rally, with the potential to determine whether bitcoin can break through the $79,000 level, which is structurally significant due to heavy institutional overhead supply.
A breakout driven by sustained institutional demand could mark a more durable shift, while a move driven mainly by short covering may fade once momentum cools, as stated by Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group.