The current bitcoin price of $77,236.71 has not yet reached its lowest point, and it is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a veteran bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must exceed $100,000, which he thinks will happen after the price drops to $57,000 by October. Despite a double-digit increase in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn.
His pessimistic outlook contradicts the consensus among analysts that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most analysts point to the renewed inflow of funds into US-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of their bullish outlook.
In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he believes is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle. While some analysts, such as Jason Fernandes, agree that the bottom has not yet been reached, they disagree with Terpin's timeline.
Fernandes believes that the market may not have fully capitulated yet, as historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which indicates a price of around $57,000.
Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. The 'Crypto Godfather' also predicts that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disputed by other analysts such as Mati Greenspan, who believes that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest makes a new all-time high plausible. AdLunam's Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.