The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique phenomenon where Bitcoin is standing still amidst significant movements in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially given that Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report indicating that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has expressed its dire economic situation, with Trump stating on Truth Social that the country is in a "State of Collapse." Meanwhile, Tehran has hinted at the possibility of accepting an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, is Dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, the founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure. According to Ebtikar, the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
Ebtikar believes that Bitcoin's sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility, and with the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate urgency for sellers to exit. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a breakdown could lead to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has consistently rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's sell-off due to growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, may influence the market.
The Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded by 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continue to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.