The general consensus among retail investors is that Bitcoin's price, currently at $77,236.71, will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning this year's negative return into a positive one. However, it's uncertain whether the market will follow this prediction. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that discussions over the past week have been heavily skewed towards Bitcoin's price surpassing $90,000, with mentions of the $50,000-$59,000 range being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd is anticipating the slow recovery from February's low of around $60,000 to continue into May, which seems reasonable given the recent inflows into exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin's resilience amidst various global conflicts and DeFi hacks. This bullish outlook, however, is precisely why Santiment advises caution, suggesting that overly optimistic social sentiment can indicate a potential bearish trend.
As one poet noted, it's often wise to go against the crowd, as they are frequently incorrect. In traditional markets, contrarian traders use sentiment gauges like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to track market sentiment. Interestingly, Bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled, with prices retreating to $77,000 from Monday's highs above $79,000, leaving it uncertain whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.