The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuela raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A new report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in trading volume, uncovering unusually high win rates for low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes.
These success rates, which have reached as high as 50% in some cases, are difficult to explain through skill or luck alone. The ACDC report suggests that markets tied to government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge.
This creates an environment where a small group of informed traders can consistently outperform others. The findings add to existing research, which has shown that a small percentage of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S.
strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in $1.8 million in profits for eight wallets. The ACDC report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, and restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups.
Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.