The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, with a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week, maintaining a narrow range despite Brent crude exceeding $111 per barrel due to a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has claimed to be in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated it may accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses, with declines of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively.
In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises, and capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure. Ebtikar stated that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was a few months ago.
He added that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think, and its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility. With the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for the exits.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level that could trigger a breakdown of the upward range that has held since late March, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched, as will the US equity market, which sold off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure. Brent crude prices have been volatile, staying elevated near $111, and putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling.